Thesis: Over short time horizons, the dollar's value responds primarily to the magnitude of a surprise relative to prior expectations rather than to the direction of the underlying policy action itself wherein a single Fed appointment or labor market release can move the currency more than an actual rate change abroad. Over longer horizons, the dollar's share of global reserves has declined from roughly 70% to 57% over 25 years, with reserve managers forecasting a further mov

For this analysis, Core PCE YoY percentage, 10Y TIPS, and S&P 500 E/P from trailing 12-month earnings were used to fundamentally understand the driving forces between equity valuations and the corresponding economic landscape from January 1st 2021 - November 1st 2025. During this period, equity valuations inhibited a full cycle, from 2022’s compression to a then re-expansion into 2025. To present a multifaceted answer, it’s important to understand how these variables connect

Recalibration, Not Retreat The Economy The Federal Reserve continues to walk a fine line, balancing between unemployment ranging from 4.0%-4.2% and 2% YOY inflationary trends. Unemployment has hovered close to the policy goal range from January to September at 4.0%- 4.3%. On the contrary, YOY inflationary trends have shown stubbornness in their alignment with the 2% Fed marker, receding from 2.99% YOY Core PCE in December ‘24 to 2.61% in May ‘25, only to regain upward moment

The coalition of BRICS countries has now grown to ten members strong with the introduction of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE in 2024,...

The Trilemma The Monetary Trilemma, also known as The Unholy Trinity, and the Impossible Trinity, is an economic principle first...